A little boy asks his dad: “How do you find a winner?”
Dad replies: “Ask your mother.”
Although the above is my attempt at humour, it is also a fact my wife is more likely to find big priced winners than me. So why isn’t she writing the blog then, I hear you ask, the simple answer is she’s not been asked.
As we all know the name of the game is to get winners, there are several ways to try to achieve this. Being in the know or close to a stable/trainer etc. You can purchase tips. You can follow a system. I have a system I change it every day. Allow me a little indulgence as I tell a true tale. I mentioned my uncle Bill in an earlier blog.
In my late teens and just old enough to place my own bets I had a little bit of luck and won a few quid. I was over the moon and was beaming from ear to ear when I walked into the front room at home. My mother asked me why I was so happy, of course, I couldn’t wait to tell someone of my good fortune. After which my mother gave me the look, you all know what I mean by “mothers look!” then said: “Oh our Eric you’re not going like my brother Bill gambling your money away” it was at this point she just said. I can give you a system as good as any you may see or buy. Well, I was all ears.
There are just a few rules:
1. leading course trainer
2. leading course jockey
3. has the horse run: 3.1 over the same distance, 3.2. on the going, 3.3. been placed in last 3 outings...
Well, she just went on on with the different proviso.
I was taking it all in and thought this sounds good.
When my mother grinned, winked then said: “Don’t put your money on unless the fourth letter in the name is a T” That about sums up my trust in systems.
In my mind, there are two types of gamblers:
One who uses high stakes and can afford to (probably professional). Two, then gamblers like me who uses small stakes.
This brings me to something I was told way back in the days when I knew less than now, 33% of races at each meeting are won by favourites. Some courses this can be as high as 40%. If you can determine which races might be won by the favourite it will help you find the chance of a big priced E/W in the other 67%. Easier said than done. As a low stake player, I look at the races where non favourites have a chance.
At the beginning of this little ramble, I mentioned my wife and her uncanny methods for winner finding. She would tell you herself its all in the ‘name’. It’s surprising how many friends going to the races for the first time ask me for a winner. You know how difficult it is, so I just tell them to go along have a good time, don’t go mad, and only have a small bet on each race.
I also tell them I can almost guarantee they will have a winner. It’s surprising how many people do well when they don’t know much about racing. It’s only when you put all the calculations in that it all goes pear-shaped.