Friday, 14 December 2018

Betting: What's Your Strategy?

Even after betting for decades it is too easy to do the wrong thing. 

It's a lesson to be learned. 

This evening I had my eye on 5:45 Kempton. Well, I say I had my eye on the race but clearly, I wasn't thinking right. I noticed New Queen had run at Listed class so registered in my Richter scale. A wide draw made me think the filly had a mountain to climb. Why on earth I bet who really knows. 

I thought it was a decent opportunity to have a no-lose gamble. Seeing the horse drift to 30 on Betfair, I bet £50 and had the bright idea of laying it at 25. It hovered around that price but wasn't taken. I had a sinking feeling as soon as I bet and even when it was flickering around 25 I felt as though someone was just playing the fool like there was a secret camera focused on my face. Watching every expression. To be honest, I wasn't overly bothered. You just have to realise that a stupid bet is a stupid bet until the bet is taken. The price started to drift. It went to 30 and then just minutes before the off went to 40. 

Not good. 

Annoyed with myself. 

I had given up all hope of the bet being laid before the off. In fact, if the price had gone down a touch I would have laid the bloody bet to a loss. It didn't change a great deal so I had to consider laying the bet to lose £17 or just leave it and hope the 25 was laid in-running. 

I wasn't overly impressed with my decision making from start to finish. Try to achieve a no-lose bet to win £125 had come close to being but not quite. 

I listened to the commentary. Two or three horses to go into the stalls. Those dying seconds saying all kind of words. I decided I would keep the bet and try and lay it in running at 25 for a no-lose bet to win £125.  

I knew the most likely hope of this happening was the horse leading. Being draw in stall 11 didn't fill me with joy. I heard the commentator announce the start of the race. 

I didn't look at the in-running betting. Just waited those few seconds to see if New Queen led. Thankfully, I heard those words. I looked at the betting and noticed half of the stake had been laid. 

I hoped it would be the whole bet to bring a satisfactory conclusion to the miserable affair. New Queen seemed to be vying for the lead if not in front and with a couple of furlongs to go the bet was taken. 

A no-lose bet to win £125. 

Funny how you can go from thinking of losing to winning so quickly. 

The bet was frustrating because I had bet like a fool. A fool in the sense I bet to lay without any real understanding. On a whim. I was thankful the bet had been laid. New Queen was competitive until the final furlong when she tired rapidly and beaten a long way. 

When betting do it for all the right reasons.