Sunday, 31 March 2019

Bejabez Ramblings - Weekly Review 1st April (Monday)

Horse trainer Richard Fahey
“What’s it all about Alfie” is a phrase I use much too often, it comes from the 1966 film Alfie. Cilla Black sings the song for the film. The song and lyrics by Burt Bacharach and Hal David were originally for Dionne Warwick. Album: Here Where There Is Love Well, “What’s it all about” (don’t start rambling again).

I thought it would be a good idea to do a weekly write up of past 2-y-o races. 

I do this for myself and my records (spreadsheet). This year, I thought I would share some of my inner thoughts. When I say some of, don’t think I’m saving something for myself. It’s just that you don’t want to be bogged down with everything that processes through the sewer that is my brain (Cognition “the mental action or process of acquiring knowledge and understanding through thought). 

Also, it would be a very boring Tome. 

That Was the Week That Was, was another title I thought of using, unfortunately, copyright may stop me as it was a satirical television comedy programme on BBC Television in 1962 and 1963 presented by David Frost.

I just can’t escape from the 1960s.

The Derby was won nine times by Lester Piggott – Never Say Die (1954) being the first Well I got out of the 1960s but the wrong way, fast forward to the present day and stop this incessant rambling. 

OK OK calm down.

Monday 1st April: Up to present we have only had three 2yo races. The first was at Naas on the 24th March, which I have posted two blogs. The other two races being Friday 29th March 5:45 Dundalk and Saturday 30th March & 4:10 Doncaster. 

Dundalk (AW) 5:45 5f Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Six sent to post. The winner Ickworth trained by W McCreery rode by W J Lee. For the Trees went off the favourite, was slow to start and gave no signs of pressing never near The winner Ickworth coming from last years winning trainer-jockey combination was prominent throughout.

The second, Moments Linger, was bumped at the start, came on strong the last furlong, but the winner had her held.

Beware of Stats:

After 3 races this season, on the face of it, W McCreery & M D O’Callaghan are not known for prolific 2yo wins 

2-Y-O WINNERS

Trainer:               2017            2018          2019 

                  wins     runs   wins    runs    wins  runs 

W McCreery         5        56*    8       81*     1     1 
M D O’Callaghan    4        50     7       59      1     1 
Richard Fahey      73       585**  54      493     1     2 

The trouble with statistics is how we interpret them. In the table above, if we only note how many winners each trainer has, ignoring the runs column, it doesn’t read well for the first 2 trainers. 

Do we alter our thoughts when we know that they mainly have runners in Ireland?

All 3 trainers are showing between 9 -13% win ratio, however, after seeing the wins to runs you would think you’ve a better chance with McCreery and O’Callaghan because their runs are low. Or perhaps not, it's all in the eye of the beholder as they say * 1 runner in GB and both losing. ** 4 runners in Ireland all losing.