The first 2-y-o race of the 2019 season is almost upon us.
I love the 2-y-o races mainly because there is no racecourse form, to begin with, and you can build your own. From day one, the form and therefore the interpretation of it is in your hands.
You can follow the racing paper tipsters or daily papers or a good website, however, what could be better than doing it yourself. I’m not saying that you have to compile your own handicap or time books.
The game is more than that the thrill and enjoyment you can get, like me, from assessing your own races is great. Pure elation when your selection not only goes on to win the race, giving you a financial incentive to study more, learn to assess more eventually giving you a euphoric activity.
Must stop rambling. Now, what was I saying, oh yes the first 2-y-o race of the season at Naas racecourse.
How can you expect to find a winner in a race of 12 runners that are having their first outing on a race track?
''I wish I was at the course to see how they are coping with the parade ring...''
This is where the pedigree may help.
Pedigree: does it really help with this type of race? 5f (plus 10) galloping track with the stiff 4f uphill finish.
Take a look at the entrants for the 1:30 Naas 24th March 2019
Well, it’s time to let you enter my thoughts! Be warned, it's not a good place to go. There will be twists and turns, perhaps the odd wander here and there.
Where to start? OK, there are 12 horses, 12 trainers, 12 jockeys (yet unknown) as stated above, none of the horses has previous runs (no form) The winning trainer last year was Brendan Duke (Value Chain). His stable is 11 miles away. His record for 2yo at Naas is one win & second place from twenty-four runners.
For those who think the distance travelled is a factor, Ernie T travels 130-mile, Amperson 120 mile & Lequinto 113 mile. One of the top trainers at Naas is J S Bolger who trains Feminista one of two fillies in the race, the other being Capel at Dawn, trained by Adrian Keatley, again, 11 miles away.
Both fillies are by Dawn Approach who had 10 2yo winners in 2017 and 16 in 2018. Its pedigree goes back to Northern Dancer through New Approach, Galileo.
There are two First Season Sires (FSS). Hot streak (Ballyare) and Anjaal (Captain Corcoran).
Looking at the sires in this race only one other stand out to me Elzaam (Never Mistabeat). Sire Elzaam had 9 wins in 2017 and 14 wins in 2018. Let's hope his win ratio improves again this season.
Talking of sires, which I tend to do, Mayson (21 wins 2017, 16 wins 2018) is one I like. He’s represented by Amperson in this race. I worry that the trainer Richard O’Brien has not had a 2yo winner in 16 races.
I did say I tend to jump around a lot when assessing a race.
Not surprising in this race I can’t really recommend anything and, in reality, could have stated this at the beginning of this blog post. However, I thought I would try to explain some of the things I look at.
I’m going for a beer. In this race, there are enough factors to make it a very interesting race for me.
The two First Season Sires I’m really looking forward to seeing (video) the Ernie T run. The pedigree going back to Giants Causeway suggests he will want further later and probably be a 7-8f horse, who knows.
In summary, I’m down to three runners: Ernie T, Never Misabeat and Feminista (although she is taking on the boys).
Oh dear, I forgot about J P Murtagh training Captain Corcoran. I shall have another look when the jockeys are declared then it might be all change, who would have thought a little race of unknowns would have given me so much fun.
Looking forward to the New 2-y-o Season.
[Written by Eric A.]