Bejabez Ramblings - Looking for Future Winners

Reposted. Written by Eric Arnold who sadly passed away in 2019. He used to write a good few posts and sadly missed. I used to enjoy our conversations about 2yo horse racing. 

Good bless, Eric.  

Looking for Future winners.

Well, what can I say, I missed the clues on that one (Naas 24th March). 

Or did I? 

With the race being a bit of a guessing game and the main racing websites offering different selections: Ampeson (ATR), Value Chain (IR and RP)... However, Timeform did give the 1: Red Epaulette 2: Never Mistabeat 3: Value Chain.

See the full result here.

It just goes to show, as, with all these early 2-y-o races, it’s best to watch, no good jumping in with both feet at this early stage of the season. I’m always happy (not) to read the trainer's post-race comments like the one from Michael O’Callaghan:  ''He’s a nice colt. We have a nice team of two-year-olds and over the past month, he was showing us that he was probably one of the more mature ones. There should be plenty of improvement in him.''

Leigh (Roche) said: ''The ground is quite holding and that his class got him through'' (from the Racing Post). 

My assessment of the race, although my own findings, some of my thoughts may be similar to other race reports. We did see the same race and with video playbacks available these days it is inevitable. The going was yielding to soft, there was one non-runner Ernie T (skin rash).

W.J. Lee, rider of Ampeson (GB), trained by Richard John O’Brien, reported to the Clerk of Scales that his mount was slowly away from the stalls and ran green throughout. Before the race I did look on ATR for the draw advantage and it did suggest low numbers and in this case, ATR was spot on low numbers did dominate 4: 3: 1: 

When doing a review, the norm is to look at the first 5 or 6 places and most write-ups will feature these horses. However, I tend to look at the horses that were more than 10 lengths behind the winner. In handicapping terms that would be 30lbs inferior, using a 3lb value per length for a distance of 5 furlongs scale. 

I watch the replay over and over again and to me it as important to discard horses as much as noting a future winner. Remember there can be valid reasons for what appears to be a bad run. I have found over the years that eliminating up to half the field in a race is an advantage although please note NOT a certainty. 

Never Mistabeat: The King Of Kells: In From The Cold: Ampeson: Lequinto would have to improve next time out before I would discard.

I always give a chance to prove me wrong. 

I realise going forward some of the many horses I discard may win a race, I don’t mind missing the odd winner now and again its the percentage game. The winner Red Epaulette, was the second winner Michael O’Callaghan has had in the last five running of this race he travelled well following the leaders until a furlong out then sent into the lead to win by over 3 lengths. 

He looks one for the future on better ground and over further. 

The two fillies did well to finish in the first five with Feminista being placed 3rd and Capel At Dawn (5th). Ballyare (4th) ran well throughout.

The horse I shall take out of this other than the winner is Capel At Dawn (5th. Slow away, making steady progress when she got the hang of it, improved in the last furlong. 

I'm not sure if the two in front of her eased slightly because she appeared to be going as fast as the winner in the final stages. 

I’m sure there will be more to come. 

Sorry but I do ramble on don’t I? 

As the 2-y-o season progresses, I hope to give my views (through my fading eyes) on what has happened in the previous week.

Bejabez Ramblings - 1:30 Naas (24th March) 5f Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden (Plus 10 Race) (2yo)

The first 2-y-o race of the 2019 season is almost upon us. 

I love the 2-y-o races mainly because there is no racecourse form, to begin with, and you can build your own. From day one, the form and therefore the interpretation of it is in your hands. 

You can follow the racing paper tipsters or daily papers or a good website, however, what could be better than doing it yourself. I’m not saying that you have to compile your own handicap or time books. 

The game is more than that the thrill and enjoyment you can get, like me, from assessing your own races is great. Pure elation when your selection not only goes on to win the race, giving you a financial incentive to study more, learn to assess more eventually giving you a euphoric activity. 

Must stop rambling. Now, what was I saying, oh yes the first 2-y-o race of the season at Naas racecourse. 

How can you expect to find a winner in a race of 12 runners that are having their first outing on a race track? 

''I wish I was at the course to see how they are coping with the parade ring...'' 

You remember your first day at school or work (anywhere that was new to you). You may be the type of person that gets nervous at the thought of meeting others. On the other hand, you could be the leader and just stride out with confidence. Well, these first-timers are similar, and some trainers tend to be better at schooling and getting their charge ready to perform first time out than others. Of course, the horse's temperament also comes into play. 

This is where the pedigree may help. 

Pedigree: does it really help with this type of race? 5f (plus 10) galloping track with the stiff 4f uphill finish.

Take a look at the entrants for the 1:30 Naas 24th March 2019

Well, it’s time to let you enter my thoughts! Be warned, it's not a good place to go. There will be twists and turns, perhaps the odd wander here and there. 

Where to start? OK, there are 12 horses, 12 trainers, 12 jockeys (yet unknown) as stated above, none of the horses has previous runs (no form) The winning trainer last year was Brendan Duke (Value Chain). His stable is 11 miles away. His record for 2yo at Naas is one win & second place from twenty-four runners. 

For those who think the distance travelled is a factor, Ernie T travels 130-mile, Amperson 120 mile & Lequinto 113 mile. One of the top trainers at Naas is J S Bolger who trains Feminista one of two fillies in the race, the other being Capel at Dawn, trained by Adrian Keatley, again, 11 miles away. 

Both fillies are by Dawn Approach who had 10 2yo winners in 2017 and 16 in 2018. Its pedigree goes back to Northern Dancer through New Approach, Galileo. 

There are two First Season Sires (FSS). Hot streak (Ballyare) and Anjaal (Captain Corcoran).

Looking at the sires in this race only one other stand out to me Elzaam (Never Mistabeat). Sire Elzaam had 9 wins in 2017 and 14 wins in 2018. Let's hope his win ratio improves again this season. 

Talking of sires, which I tend to do, Mayson (21 wins 2017, 16 wins 2018) is one I like. He’s represented by Amperson in this race. I worry that the trainer Richard O’Brien has not had a 2yo winner in 16 races. 

I did say I tend to jump around a lot when assessing a race. 

Not surprising in this race I can’t really recommend anything and, in reality, could have stated this at the beginning of this blog post. However, I thought I would try to explain some of the things I look at. 

I’m going for a beer.  In this race, there are enough factors to make it a very interesting race for me. 

The two First Season Sires I’m really looking forward to seeing (video) the Ernie T run. The pedigree going back to Giants Causeway suggests he will want further later and probably be a 7-8f horse, who knows. 

In summary, I’m down to three runners: Ernie T, Never Misabeat and Feminista (although she is taking on the boys).

Oh dear, I forgot about J P Murtagh training Captain Corcoran.  I shall have another look when the jockeys are declared then it might be all change, who would have thought a little race of unknowns would have given me so much fun. 

Looking forward to the New 2-y-o Season.

[Written by Eric A.]