Tuesday, 26 March 2019

Bejabez Ramblings - Looking for Future Winners

Red Epaulette wins at Naas
Looking for Future winners.

Well, what can I say, I missed the clues on that one (Naas 24th March). 

Or did I? 

With the race being a bit of a guessing game and the main racing websites offering different selections: Ampeson (ATR), Value Chain (IR and RP)... However, Timeform did give the 1: Red Epaulette 2: Never Mistabeat 3: Value Chain.

See the full result here.

It just goes to show, as, with all these early 2-y-o races, it’s best to watch, no good jumping in with both feet at this early stage of the season. I’m always happy (not) to read the trainer's post-race comments like the one from Michael O’Callaghan:  ''He’s a nice colt. We have a nice team of two-year-olds and over the past month, he was showing us that he was probably one of the more mature ones. There should be plenty of improvement in him.''

Leigh (Roche) said: ''The ground is quite holding and that his class got him through'' (from the Racing Post). 

My assessment of the race, although my own findings, some of my thoughts may be similar to other race reports. We did see the same race and with video playbacks available these days it is inevitable. The going was yielding to soft, there was one non-runner Ernie T (skin rash).

W.J. Lee, rider of Ampeson (GB), trained by Richard John O’Brien, reported to the Clerk of Scales that his mount was slowly away from the stalls and ran green throughout. Before the race I did look on ATR for the draw advantage and it did suggest low numbers and in this case, ATR was spot on low numbers did dominate 4: 3: 1: 

When doing a review, the norm is to look at the first 5 or 6 places and most write-ups will feature these horses. However, I tend to look at the horses that were more than 10 lengths behind the winner. In handicapping terms that would be 30lbs inferior, using a 3lb value per length for a distance of 5 furlongs scale. 

I watch the replay over and over again and to me it as important to discard horses as much as noting a future winner. Remember there can be valid reasons for what appears to be a bad run. I have found over the years that eliminating up to half the field in a race is an advantage although please note NOT a certainty. 

Never Mistabeat: The King Of Kells: In From The Cold: Ampeson: Lequinto would have to improve next time out before I would discard.

I always give a chance to prove me wrong. 

I realise going forward some of the many horses I discard may win a race, I don’t mind missing the odd winner now and again its the percentage game. The winner Red Epaulette, was the second winner Michael O’Callaghan has had in the last five running of this race he travelled well following the leaders until a furlong out then sent into the lead to win by over 3 lengths. 

He looks one for the future on better ground and over further. 

The two fillies did well to finish in the first five with Feminista being placed 3rd and Capel At Dawn (5th). Ballyare (4th) ran well throughout.

The horse I shall take out of this other than the winner is Capel At Dawn (5th. Slow away, making steady progress when she got the hang of it, improved in the last furlong. 

I'm not sure if the two in front of her eased slightly because she appeared to be going as fast as the winner in the final stages. 

I’m sure there will be more to come. 

Sorry but I do ramble on don’t I? 

As the 2-y-o season progresses, I hope to give my views (through my fading eyes) on what has happened in the previous week.